Can Canada replace the U.S. with Europe? Not yet
In 2025, the U.S. received 72% of Canada’s goods exports and 53% of its service exports. Diversification is growing; replacement is a different claim.
Canada is widening its list of trade partners, but the U.S. market is still far larger than any alternative. Global Affairs Canada’s 2026 report gives the 2025 destination shares below.
| Export type | United States | Other markets |
|---|---|---|
| Goods | 72% | 28% |
| Services | 53% | 47% |
What is changing?
Exports to markets outside the U.S. rose 11.1% in 2025, and their share reached its highest level since 1981, according to Canada’s report. Gold, crude oil, aluminum and canola helped drive the increase. Those sales were spread across Europe, the Indo-Pacific and other markets—not one replacement country.
Can Europe replace the U.S. soon?
Not at this scale. Statistics Canada puts the U.S. share of Canada’s 2025 goods exports at 71.7%. The Associated Press reported that Europe is nowhere close to replacing that market; the EU “associate membership” idea mentioned by Carney is not an existing status.
Canada is reducing its exposure to a single partner, not moving the same trade to Europe. That distinction matters when a headline makes diversification sound like a finished switch.
The 72% figure covers goods exports; 53% covers service exports. They are not interchangeable measures.
Sources: Global Affairs Canada · Statistics Canada · Associated Press