Did Carney say the U.S. might attack Canada?

Yes, he said Canada examined the possibility. He also called it an “extreme tail risk,” “not a base case.” That is contingency planning—not a claim that an attack is imminent.

In a New York Times interview published September 23, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said a leader has a responsibility to consider extreme risks. He described the review as risk management and did not disclose its details.

What does “not a base case” mean?

Carney did not present U.S. military action as the expected scenario. He said it would be irresponsible not to prepare for an extreme possibility. Considering a low-probability, high-consequence event is different from predicting it will happen soon.

Why is Canada discussing this now?

Canada–U.S. trade talks collapsed in August. In the same interview, Carney described plans to reduce Canadian dependence on U.S. technology, including satellite internet and fighter-jet procurement. That is the broader context; the interview does not establish an imminent military threat.

As of September 27, 2026. Carney did not make the details of the risk review public.

Sources: The New York Times · The Canadian Press · Associated Press